Tuesday, February 05, 2008

High-speed trains better than flying?

So, I've been thinking about this for a long time: how to make train use more ubiquitous in the United States, especially high-speed trains. This interest was piqued again when I read the Treehugger article "Spain's New High-Speed Rail Service Challenges the Airlines." So, just how much better is it to take a high-speed train (at various average speeds) over that of flying?

I made the following assumptions when making my back-of-the envelope calculations:
  1. Three average speeds of high-speed trains (HSPs) were calculated: 100mph, 150mph, and 200mph. This allows for possible stops on the way.
  2. The train travel distance is the same as a driving distance. Driving distances were measured using Google Maps. This assumption does not always hold, but I do not know of any railroad distance measurements.
  3. All flights are non-stop direct flights (i.e., no layovers or transfers).
  4. Flight times were estimated by looking at flight times of actual flights using Orbitz.com.
  5. Travel times to and from terminals were consistent estimates (1 hour for trains, 2 hours for airplanes).
  6. The requirement to arrive early at the terminal remained consistent across estimates (1 hour for trains, 2 hours for airplanes).
  7. The requirement of staying at the terminal for baggage pick-up remained consistent across estimates (0 hours for trains, 1 hour for airplanes).
With these understandings, the following estimates (very rough) were found:

Mode

From

To

Distance

Total time

HSP100

New York

Richmond

342

5.42

HSP150

New York

Richmond

342

4.28

HSP200

New York

Richmond

342

3.71

Plane

New York

Richmond

6.50

HSP100

New York

St. Louis

950

11.50

HSP150

New York

St. Louis

950

8.33

HSP200

New York

St. Louis

950

6.75

Plane

New York

St. Louis

8.00

HSP100

New York

Austin

1741

19.41

HSP150

New York

Austin

1741

13.61

HSP200

New York

Austin

1741

10.71

Plane

New York

Austin

9.5

HSP100

New York

San Diego

2801

30.01

HSP150

New York

San Diego

2801

20.67

HSP200

New York

San Diego

2801

16.01

Plane

New York

San Diego

11.50


Obviously, the longer the distance of travel, the faster the trip is made by plane in comparison to the train. However, if you add in the time for possible layovers or transfers (anywhere from 1 to 3 hours), airplane travel times (even on longer trips) increase beyond the level of the type of train travel times that you might expect, based on the speeds of the new Spanish trains.

Therefore, it may make more sense - in terms of travel times - to take a fast train, rather than to fly. Add into this the comfort issue (trains have more space than airplanes) and the fuel cost issue (trains use less fuel per passenger), and one may well think that adding in a HSP system to the United States' transportation options may be a good one to make, especially serving those cities that already have railway infrastructure.

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